Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Our forecast for the global economy is broadly unchanged. We now expect global growth to come in at 2.7% for both 2024 and 2025, marginally lower than the 2.8% we previously assumed. Meanwhile, inflation is still expected to be 3.1% in 2024, before falling back to 2.5% in 2025, a touch higher than our prior 2.4% forecast. From our perspective, concerns about an imminent US recession are overblown. Rising unemployment has not been driven by layoffs, but rather elevated inward net migration outpacing the normalisation in job creation.